Pace University Event Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: What Can We Expect?

 

Conservation Cafe´presents  the next Conversations on Conservation   "Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: What Can We Expect?"         June 7, 2013 8:30am- 11am at Pace University Pleasantville Campus Gottesman Room, Kessel Student Center, Entrance 3           In recent years the frequency and intensity of storms in our area has been on the rise, and as we are still in the midst of clean-up from Hurricane Sandy, climate change and its effect on sea level rise is top of mind. Find out what climate change is, what its effects are on our oceans and rivers, and the impacts of extreme weather in our local communities. Speakers * Andy Revkin, Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding at Pace University's Academy for Applied Environmental Studies, who will give a broad overview of climate change, rising oceans, and their possible impact on New York State.     * Adam Whelchel, Ph.D. Director of Science at The Nature Conservancy/Connecticut Chapter, who will speak about how sea level rise may impact Long Island Sound.    * Mark Lowery, Climate Policy Analyst in the office of Climate Change at New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, who will talk about the sea level rise along the Hudson River and how New York State can respond to it.     A panel discussion with a question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentations.   Registration begins at 8:30 a.m.; the program begins at 8:45 a.m.      This is a FREE program, and all are welcome to join.     To RSVP:                      Online: www.fcwc.org/events                           By Phone: 914-422-4053                      By Email: fcwc@fcwc.org                         Conservation Café programs provide a forum for dialogue about current environmental issues. Co-Sponsored by:  Grassroots Environmental Education,Greenburgh Nature Center,  FCWC, Friends of Westchester County Parks, Mianus River Gorge, Pace University, Teatown Lake Reservation, Westchester County Parks and Planning Departments and Westchester Land Trust.   Please spread news about this program widely.

GAO Report Released: Climate Change: Future Federal Adaptation Efforts Could Better Support Local Infrastructure Decision Makers

Recently, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report, titled Climate Change: Future Federal Adaptation Efforts Could Better Support Local Infrastructure Decision Makers GAO-13-242 (Apr. 12, 2013). The details of the 99-page report, available here, are discussed below:

Why GAO Did This Study

The federal government invests billions of dollars annually in infrastructure, such as roads and bridges, facing increasing risks from climate change. Adaptation--defined as adjustments to natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate change-- can help manage these risks by making infrastructure more resilient.
GAO was asked to examine issues related to infrastructure decision making and climate change. This report examines (1) the impacts of climate change on roads and bridges, wastewater systems, and NASA centers; (2) the extent to which climate change is incorporated into infrastructure planning; (3) factors that enabled some decision makers to implement adaptive measures; and (4) federal efforts to address local adaptation needs, as well as potential opportunities for improvement.
GAO reviewed climate change assessments; analyzed relevant reports; interviewed stakeholders from professional associations and federal agencies; and visited infrastructure projects and interviewed local decision makers at seven sites where adaptive measures have been implemented.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends, among other things, that a federal entity designated by the Executive Office of the President (EOP) work with agencies to identify for local infrastructure decision makers the best available climaterelated information for planning, and also to update this information over time. Relevant EOP entities did not provide official comments, but instead provided technical comments, which GAO incorporated, as appropriate.

USGS Map Released: Coastal-change and Glaciological Map of the Amery Ice Shelf Area, Antarctica: 1961–2004

Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a map titled Coastal-change and Glaciological Map of the Amery Ice Shelf Area, Antarctica: 1961–2004 (USGS USGS IMAP: 2600-Q). The 11-page map available here, compiled by Keniv M. Foley et al., discusses the following:

[r]eduction in the area and volume of Earth’s two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate and to the resulting rise in sea level. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey used its archive of satellite images to document changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica and analyze the glaciological features of the coastal regions. Amery Ice Shelf, lying between 67.5° and 75° East longitude and 68.5° and 73.2° South latitude, is the largest ice shelf in East Antarctica. The latest measurements of the area of the ice shelf range between 62,620 and 71,260 square kilometers. The ice shelf is fed primarily by Lambert, Mellor, and Fisher Glaciers; its thickness ranges from 3,000 meters in the center of the grounding line to less than 300 meters at the ice front. Lambert Glacier is considered to be the largest glacier in the world, and its drainage basin is more than 1 million square kilometers in area. It is possible to see some coastal change on the outlet glaciers along the coast, but most of the noticeable change occurs on the Amery Ice Shelf front.

NRDC Report Released: Getting Climate Smart: A Water Preparedness Guide for State Action

Recently, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an international non-profit environmental advocacy and action group which focuses on the protection of wildlife and habitat, issued a report produced in conjunction with American Rivers titled, Getting Climate Smart: A Water Preparedness Guide for State Action (2013). According to the press release for the 151-page report available here, the report discusses how,

NRDC's Getting Climate Smart: A Water Preparedness Guide for State Action is a guide to assist water managers and state governments as they ready themselves for wide-ranging changes for their communities and ecosystems. Getting Climate Smart mixes practical guidance, planning tools, case studies and a holistic toolbox of strategies covering everything from agriculture, to energy, to public health and infrastructure. By following these steps, states can better prepare for future climate variability and better position themselves to tackle the inevitable challenges of a changing climate.

CRS Report Released: Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of Congress, recently issued the report Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress (Apr. 25, 2013). The 96-page report authored by Ronald O'Rourke, discusses the following:

Summary

The diminishment of Arctic sea ice has led to increased human activities in the Arctic, and has heightened interest in, and concerns about, the region’s future. The United States, by virtue of Alaska, is an Arctic country and has substantial interests in the region. On January 12, 2009, the George W. Bush Administration released a presidential directive, called National Security Presidential Directive 66/Homeland Security Presidential Directive 25 (NSPD 66/HSPD 25), establishing a new U.S. policy for the Arctic region.

Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

The five Arctic coastal states—the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (of which Greenland is a territory)—are in the process of preparing Arctic territorial claims for submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. The Russian claim to the enormous underwater Lomonosov Ridge, if accepted, would reportedly grant Russia nearly one-half of the Arctic area. There are also four other unresolved Arctic territorial disputes.

The diminishment of Arctic ice could lead in coming years to increased commercial shipping on two trans-Arctic sea routes—the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage. Current international guidelines for ships operating in Arctic waters are being updated.

Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies have yet to be developed.

Large commercial fisheries exist in the Arctic. The United States is currently meeting with other countries regarding the management of Arctic fish stocks. Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species. Under the Endangered Species Act, the polar bear was listed as threatened on May 15, 2008. Arctic climate change is also expected to affect the economies, health, and cultures of Arctic indigenous peoples.

Two of the Coast Guard’s three polar icebreakers—Polar Star and Polar Sea—have exceeded their intended 30-year service lives, and Polar Sea is not operational. The possibility of increased sea traffic through Arctic waters raises an issue concerning Arctic search and rescue capabilities. On May 12, 2011, representatives from the member states of the Arctic Council signed an agreement on cooperation on aeronautical and maritime search and rescue in the Arctic.

The Arctic has increasingly become a subject of discussion among political leaders of the nations in the region. Although there is significant international cooperation on Arctic issues, the Arctic is also increasingly being viewed by some observers as a potential emerging security issue. In varying degrees, the Arctic coastal states have indicated a willingness to establish and maintain a military presence in the high north. U.S. military forces, particularly the Navy and Coast Guard, have begun to pay more attention to the region.

CRS Report Released: International Climate Change Financing: The Green Climate Fund (GCF)

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of Congress, recently issued the report International Climate Change Financing: The Green Climate Fund (GCF) (Apr. 16, 2013). The 16-page report authored by Richard K. Lattanzio, discusses the following:

Summary

Over the past several decades, the United States has delivered financial and technical assistance for climate change activities in the developing world through a variety of bilateral and multilateral programs. The United States and other industrialized countries committed to such assistance through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, Treaty Number: 102-38, 1992), the Copenhagen Accord (2009), and the UNFCCC Cancun Agreements (2010), wherein the higher-income countries pledged jointly up to $30 billion of “fast start” climate financing for lower-income countries for the period 2010-2012, and a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually by 2020. The Cancun Agreements also proposed that the pledged funds are to be new, additional to previous flows, adequate, predictable, and sustained, and are to come from a wide variety of sources, both public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources of finance.

One potential mechanism for mobilizing a share of the proposed international climate financing is the UNFCCC Green Climate Fund (GCF), proposed in the Cancun Agreements and accepted by Parties during the December 2011 conference in Durban, South Africa. The fund aims to assist developing countries in their efforts to combat climate change through the provision of grants and other concessional financing for mitigation and adaptation projects, programs, policies, and activities. The GCF is to be capitalized by contributions from donor countries and other sources, including both innovative mechanisms and the private sector. Currently, the GCF complements many of the existing multilateral climate change funds (e.g., the Global Environment Facility, the Climate Investment Funds, and the Adaptation Fund); however, as the official financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, some Parties believe that it may eventually replace or subsume the other funds. While many Parties expect capitalization and operation of the GCF to begin shortly after the November 2013 conference in Warsaw, Poland, many issues remain to be clarified, and some involve long-standing and contentious debate. They include what role the CGF would play in providing sustained finance at scale, how it would fit into the existing development assistance and climate financing architecture, how it would be capitalized, and how it would allocate and deliver assistance efficiently and effectively to developing countries.

The U.S. Congress—through its role in authorizations, appropriations, and oversight—would have significant input on U.S. participation in the GCF. Congress regularly determines and gives guidance to the allocation of foreign aid between bilateral and multilateral assistance as well as among the variety of multilateral mechanisms. In the past, Congress has raised concerns regarding the cost, purpose, direction, efficiency, and effectiveness of the UNFCCC and existing international institutions of climate financing. Potential authorizations and appropriations for the GCF would rest with several committees, including the U.S. House of Representatives Committees on Foreign Affairs (various subcommittees); Financial Services (Subcommittee on International Monetary Policy and Trade); and Appropriations (Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs); and the U.S. Senate Committees on Foreign Relations (Subcommittee on International Development and Foreign Assistance, Economic Affairs, and International Environmental Protection); and Appropriations (Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs). As of April 2013, the U.S. Administration—through its State,

Foreign Operations, and Related Programs 150 account—has made no specific budget request for appropriated funds to be contributed to the GCF.

USGS Environmental Sciences Strategies Released for 2012

Recently, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a series of scientific strategies for various areas relating to environmental law.  For more information on these reports see below:

• Climate and Land Use Change Science Strategy: A Framework for Understanding and Responding to Global Change (USGS Circular: 1383-A 2013). Report 56 pp.

• Core Science Systems Strategy:Characterizing, Synthesizing, and Understanding the Critical Zone Through a Modular Science Framework (USGS Circular: 1383-B 2013). Report 44 pp.

• Ecosystems Science Strategy: Advancing Discovery and Application Through Collaboration (USGS Circular: 1383-C 2013). Report 56 pp.

• Energy and Minerals Science Strategy: A Resource Lifecycle Approach (USGS Circular: 1383-D 2013). Report 52 pp.

• Environmental Health Science Strategy: Providing Environmental Health Science for a Changing World (USGS Circular: 1383-E 2013). Report 56 pp.

• Natural Hazards Science Strategy: Promoting the Safety, Security, and Economic Well-being of the Nation (USGS Circular: 1383-F 2013). Report 96 pp.

• Water Science Strategy: Observing, Understanding, Predicting, and Delivering Water Science to the Nation (USGS Circular: 1383-G 2013). Report 63 pp.

National Academies Report Released: A Review of the Draft 2013 National Climate Assessment

Recently, the National Academies Press (NAP) released a report produced by the Panel to Review the National Climate Assessment; Board on Atmospheric Studies and Climate; Division of Earth and Life Studies; Board on Environmental Change and Society; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; and the National Research Council titled, A Review of the Draft 2013 National Climate Assessment. The 132-page report is available free with a one-time registration.

NIDIS Releases Drought Taskforce Report: An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought

Recently, National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), a collaboration between NOAA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center released a Drought Taskforce Report titled An Interpretation of the Origins of the 2012 Central Great Plains Drought (2013).  According to the 50-page report, available here, and the summary report, the following issues are discussed:

Precipitation deficits for the period May through August 2012 were the most severe since official measurements began in 1895, eclipsing the driest summers of 1934 and 1936 that occurred during the height of the Dust Bowl. This prolonged period of precipitation deficits, along with above normal temperatures, resulted in the largest area of the contiguous United States in drought since the U.S. Drought Monitor began in January 2000. By early September, over three-quarters of the contiguous U.S. was experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions with nearly half of the region (the Central Plains in particular) experiencing unprecedented severe drought.
　
For a longer-term perspective, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for August 2012 is compared to a long-term PDSI average spanning from 1895 to 2000 (left) and identifies the core region of the drought to be the central Plains region, with the most extreme moisture deficits occurring over the western Plains (consistent with the Drought Monitor map). A central U.S. epicenter for the drought is also affirmed by the May-August standardized rainfall deficits (middle) with -2 standardized departures from the 1981 to 2010 long-term average being widespread from Colorado to Missouri. Much of the dry region also experienced hot temperatures (right). The combination of low rainfall and high temperatures is typically seen during summertime droughts over the central U.S.

The central Great Plains drought during May-August of 2012 resulted mostly from natural variations in weather.

• Moist Gulf of Mexico air failed to stream northward in late spring as cyclone and frontal activity were shunted unusually northward.
• Summertime thunderstorms were infrequent and when they did occur produced little rainfall.
• Neither ocean states nor human-induced climate change, factors that can provide long-lead predictability, appeared to play significant roles in causing severe rainfall deficits over the major corn producing regions of central Great Plains.

Wildlife Conservation Society Report Released: Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic Alaska

Recently, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), a New York based, global conservation organization committed to preserving biodiversity and which manages approximately 500 conservation projects in more than 60 countries including the Bronx Zoo, released a report titled, Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic Alaska (2013). The 170-page document available here (see latest publications on right-side navigation bar), discusses the following:

[t]he report, Assessing Climate Change Vulnerability of Breeding Birds in Arctic Alaska, co-authored by WCS Scientists Joe Liebezeit, Erika Rowland, Molly Cross and Steve Zack, details in-depth vulnerability assessments conducted on 54 species to help guide climate-informed wildlife management in the region. The project was aided by the participation of more than 80 scientists who are experts on the assessed species.

Results showed that along with the highly vulnerable gyrfalcon and common eider, seven other species were moderately vulnerable, including: brandt, Steller’s eider, pomerine jaeger, yellow-billed loon, buff-breasted sandpiper, red phalarope and ruddy turnstone. Five species, including the savannah sparrow, Lapland longspur, white-crowned sparrow, American tree-sparrow and common redpoll are likely to increase in number, according to the assessments.

The authors note that the assessments calculated vulnerabilities looking exclusively at the impacts of climate change experienced by breeding birds in Arctic Alaska, and not in other parts of their range.

UNEP Global Environmental Alert Released for March: The Impact of Corruption on Climate Change: Threatening Emissions Trading Mechanisms?

Recently, the United Nations Environment Programme released a new Global Environmental Alert titled, The Impact of Corruption on Climate Change: Threatening Emissions Trading Mechanisms? (Mar. 2013). According to the 13-page alert,

[t]his bulletin provides an overview of recent discussions about the impact of corruption on environmental governance, with a focus on emissions trading. It reviews new definitions and the latest corruption assessment methodologies in order to illuminate the broader challenges faced by GHG trading mechanisms and climate finance.

Prior alerts are available here, dating from Aug. 2010 to the present.

In the News: Long-term Global Climate Change Study

Today, researchers released a study of long-term global climate temperatures for the last 11,300 years.  According to the article abstract,

Surface temperature reconstructions of the past 1500 years suggest that recent warming is unprecedented in that time. Here we provide a broader perspective by reconstructing regional and global temperature anomalies for the past 11,300 years from 73 globally distributed records. Early Holocene (10,000 to 5000 years ago) warmth is followed by ~0.7°C cooling through the middle to late Holocene (<5000 years ago), culminating in the coolest temperatures of the Holocene during the Little Ice Age, about 200 years ago. This cooling is largely associated with ~2°C change in the North Atlantic. Current global temperatures of the past decade have not yet exceeded peak interglacial values but are warmer than during ~75% of the Holocene temperature history. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change model projections for 2100 exceed the full distribution of Holocene temperature under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

References

Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, & Alan C. Mix, A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science 8 March 2013: 1198-1201.[DOI:10.1126/science.1228026] 
 

New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/science/earth/global-temperatures-highest-in-4000-years-study-says.html?_r=0
 
National Science Foundation Article,
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?org=NSF&cntn_id=127133&preview=false

WRI Working Paper Released: A Critical Decade for Climate Policy: Tools and Initiatives to Track Our Progress

This month, the World Resources Institute, a global environmental think tank whose mission is “to move human society to live in ways that protect Earth’s environment and its capacity to provide for the needs and aspirations of current and future generations,” recently released a report authored by Taryn Fransen with Casey Cronin titled, A Critical Decade for Climate Policy: Tools and Initiatives to Track Our Progress (2013). The 24-page report available here discusses how,

[t]he last five years have seen both broad and deep advancements in national policies to mitigate future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The next five years will be instrumental in ensuring that these policies are implemented effectively, creating sustained change that will achieve gigatonne-scale GHG reductions, and laying the foundation for countries to move ahead with ever more ambitious approaches to reduce GHG emissions and limit the dangers and costs of a changing climate.

In order to support effective development and implementation of climate policies, a suite of policy tracking tools and initiatives is evolving, with a variety of characteristics tuned to address different questions and audiences. Underlying these efforts is the observation of metrics related to climate policy development, adoption, implementation, and/or effect. These initiatives seek to complement the measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) processes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), promoting accountability for governments to set and meet ambitious yet feasible goals and targets, identifying barriers and facilitating course corrections when necessary, and ultimately supporting overall policy progress and effectiveness.
. . .

Ceres Report Released: Insurer Climate Risk Disclosure Survey 2012

Yesterday, Ceres an international "advocate for sustainability leadership"  issued a report titled, Insurer Climate Risk Disclosure Survey 2012 (2013). According to the press release for the report, and available with a one-time free registration,

[t]his report summarizes responses from insurance companies to a survey on climate risk developed by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). In 2012 insurance regulators in California, New York and Washington required insurers that write in excess of $300 million in direct written premiums, and are licensed to operate in any of the three states, to disclose their climate-related risks using this survey. The aim of the survey and Ceres’ analysis of the responses is to provide regulators with substantive information about the risks to insurers posed by climate change, as well as steps insurers are taking in response to their understanding of climate change risks.

CRS Report Released: Cars, Trucks, and Climate: EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gases from Mobile Sources

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of Congress, recently issued the report Cars, Trucks, and Climate: EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gases from Mobile Sources (Feb. 14, 2013). The 22-page report authored by James E. McCarthy and Brent D. Yacobucci discusses the following:

Summary

On October 15, 2012, the Obama Administration took a major step toward reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from motor vehicles when it promulgated GHG emission standards for model year 2017-2025 light duty vehicles. Under the standards, GHG emissions from new cars and light trucks will be reduced about 50% by 2025 compared to 2010, and average fuel economy standards will rise to nearly 50 miles per gallon. EPA had previously set GHG emission standards for MY2012-2016 vehicles as well as for 2014-2018 model year medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

These steps have been taken as the Congress (particularly the House) and the Administration have reached an impasse over climate issues. The Administration has made clear that its preference would be for Congress to address the climate issue through new legislation. Nevertheless, in the wake of a 2007 Supreme Court decision, it has moved forward on several fronts to define how the Clean Air Act will be used and to promulgate regulations.

The key to using the CAA’s authority to control greenhouse gases was for the EPA Administrator to find that GHG emissions are air pollutants that endanger public health or welfare. EPA Administrator Jackson promulgated such an endangerment finding in December 2009. With the endangerment finding finalized, the agency has proceeded to regulate emissions from motor vehicles.

In all, EPA has received 12 petitions asking that it make endangerment findings and proceed to regulate emissions of greenhouse gases. Ten of the 12 petitions addressed mobile sources: besides motor vehicles, the petitions cover aircraft, ships, nonroad vehicles and engines, locomotives, and fuels, all of which are covered by Title II of the CAA. This report discusses the full range of EPA’s authority under Title II and provides information regarding other mobile sources that might be regulated under this authority, in addition to describing the car and truck regulations.

Regulation of GHGs from mobile sources has led the agency to establish controls for stationary sources, such as electric power plants, as well. Stationary source options, the authority for which comes from different parts of the CAA, are addressed in CRS Report R41212, EPA Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: Congressional Responses and Options. 

IUCN Report Released: The Art of Implementation: Gender Strategies Transforming National and Regional Climate Change Decision Making

This month, the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), "the world’s oldest and largest global environmental organization," released a report titled, The Art of Implementation: Gender Strategies Transforming National and Regional Climate Change Decision Making (2013). The 124-page report is available here, as a downloadable pdf. According to the abstract,

This publication shares IUCN's experiences in developing the world's first gender-responsive national strategies and roadmaps on climate change. Different sections outline steps and elements of creating a climate change gender action plan (ccGAP) or REDD+ roadmap; present principles behind the strategies and what has worked best; detail case studies highlighting sectors that demonstrate the gender dimensions of climate change in different national contexts; and provide recommendations on how to move forward.

CRS Report Released: Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues

The Congressional Research Service (CRS), the public policy research arm of Congress, recently issued the report Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues (Jan. 2, 2013). The 18-page report authored by Ronald O'Rourke discusses the following:

Summary

The diminishment of Arctic sea ice has led to increased human activities in the Arctic, and has heightened interest in, and concerns about, the region’s future. The United States, by virtue of Alaska, is an Arctic country and has substantial interests in the region. On January 12, 2009, the George W. Bush Administration released a presidential directive, called National Security Presidential Directive 66/Homeland Security Presidential Directive 25 (NSPD 66/HSPD 25), establishing a new U.S. policy for the Arctic region.

Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

The five Arctic coastal states—the United States, Canada, Russia, Norway, and Denmark (of which Greenland is a territory)—are in the process of preparing Arctic territorial claims for submission to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. The Russian claim to the enormous underwater Lomonosov Ridge, if accepted, would reportedly grant Russia nearly onehalf of the Arctic area. There are also four other unresolved Arctic territorial disputes. The diminishment of Arctic ice could lead in coming years to increased commercial shipping on two trans-Arctic sea routes—the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage.

Current international guidelines for ships operating in Arctic waters are being updated. Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies have yet to be developed.

Large commercial fisheries exist in the Arctic. The United States is currently meeting with other countries regarding the management of Arctic fish stocks. Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species. Under the Endangered Species Act, the polar bear was listed as threatened on May 15, 2008. Arctic climate change is also expected to affect the economies, health, and cultures of Arctic indigenous peoples.

Two of the Coast Guard’s three polar icebreakers—Polar Star and Polar Sea—have exceeded their intended 30-year service lives, and Polar Sea is not operational. The possibility of increased sea traffic through Arctic waters raises an issue concerning Arctic search and rescue capabilities. On May 12, 2011, representatives from the member states of the Arctic Council signed an agreement on cooperation on aeronautical and maritime search and rescue in the Arctic.

The Arctic has increasingly become a subject of discussion among political leaders of the nations in the region. Although there is significant international cooperation on Arctic issues, the Arctic is also increasingly being viewed by some observers as a potential emerging security issue. In varying degrees, the Arctic coastal states have indicated a willingness to establish and maintain a military presence in the high north. U.S. military forces, particularly the Navy and Coast Guard, have begun to pay more attention to the region.

National Intelligence Council Report Released: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

This week, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), a bridge agency established in 1979 to "support[ ] the Director of National Intelligence in his role as head of the Intelligence Community," released its annual report titled, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds (2012).  The 160-page report available here, which discusses issues of food, water, climate change, and energy,

is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

In-depth research, detailed modeling and a variety of analytical tools drawn from public, private and academic sources were employed in the production of Global Trends 2030. NIC leadership engaged with experts in nearly 20 countries—from think tanks, banks, government offices and business groups—to solicit reviews of the report.

Prior versions of the report are available here:
Global Trends 2025
Global Trends 2020
Global Trends 2015
Global Trends 2010

UNEP Booklet Released: Seeds of Knowledge - Contributing to Climate Change Solutions

This month, the United Nations Environment Programme released a booklet titled, Seeds of Knowledge - Contributing to Climate Change Solutions for 2012. The 91-page document available here, "presents 24 case studies from 17 countries on grassroots solutions to the impacts of climate change."  According to UNEP,

[t]hese solutions come at a critical time. As never before the world is in a race against time to act on climate change or face cataclysmic natural disasters. Heat waves, droughts and flooding, we have seen them all. While vulnerability to climate change poses risks to all communities, the impacts are likely to be tilted against many of the world's poorest regions, which have the least economic, institutional and technical ability to adapt and cope.

Seeds of Knowledge aims to show that grassroots, community-led responses are already playing an essential role in building resilience to climate change across all regions of the world. With the right levels of investment and support, such initiatives can be scaled up and become a central component in reducing climate risks and supporting the transition to an inclusive Green Economy.

NRDC Report Released: Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the United States

This month, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), an international non-profit environmental advocacy and action group which focuses on the protection of wildlife and habitat issues a report titled, Climate Impacts on the Winter Tourism Economy in the United States (Dec. 2012). According to the press release for the 36-page report available here, the report

details how the $12.2 billion winter tourism industry spread out across 38 states has experienced an estimated $1 billion loss and up to 27,000 fewer jobs over the last decade due to diminished snow fall patterns and the resulting changes in the outdoor habits of Americans, according to the new study prepared for the nonprofit groups Protect Our Winters (POW) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).